SPC MD 1817

MD 1817 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MO AND FAR SERN KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1817
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0703 PM CDT FRI SEP 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W-CNTRL MO AND FAR SERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 190003Z - 190130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...LOCALIZED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR AN HOUR
OR TWO THIS EVENING.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
A TORNADO OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN
THE LAST HOUR WITH ONE SUPERCELL SHOWING PERSISTENT ROTATION MOVING
INTO CASS COUNTY MO...AND ANOTHER DEVELOPING FURTHER NORTHEAST IN
RAY COUNTY MO.  DESPITE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
SOUTHEASTERN MO.  THIS -- ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND
SOME LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SEEN IN KEAX VAD WIND PROFILES -- WILL ALLOW
FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES TO PERSIST FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
EVENING.  LOW-LEVEL ROTATION IN THE CASS COUNTY STORM MAY BE
ENHANCED BY A NARROW ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ALONG AN E-W
ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY DIVIDING JOHNSON AND HENRY COUNTIES IN MO.
 ELSEWHERE...A FEW ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT THAT WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND A BRIEF TORNADO.

..CONIGLIO/EDWARDS.. 09/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38529466 38989429 39439395 39459321 39299257 38869211
            38269210 37609247 37079330 37109450 37369524 37949548
            38389499 38529466 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1W9jgat