MD 1896 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1896
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 PM CST Thu Dec 31 2020
Areas affected...far eastern South Carolina into southern North
Carolina
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 312026Z - 312230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...Recent convective development in eastern South Carolina
may pose an isolated wind/tornado risk this afternoon. A WW
issuance is not anticipated due to the isolated nature of the
threat.
DISCUSSION...A small cluster of lightning-producing convection has
evolved near Horry County, SC over the past hour or so, with modest
but increasing organization noted on local radar. The increase in
intensity is likely aided by an advancing, low-amplitude mid-level
wave evident on water vapor imagery and objective analysis. The
storms are in a marginally unstable environment (with over 500 J/kg
MUCAPE in the pre-storm environment). However, the presence of
strong updrafts (and nearly 40kft echo tops) suggests that the
storms may be taking advantage of the 40-50 kts of environmental
deep shear, fostering organization. Additionally, the presence of
150-200 m2/s2 0-3km SRH may foster rotation in a few of the storms,
enhancing any localized risk of a damaging wind gust or perhaps a
tornado. The overall risk should be localized and isolated given
the marginal nature of the instability, however, precluding the need
for a WW.
..Cook/Grams.. 12/31/2020
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...
LAT...LON 34407946 34787873 34977786 34947720 34617697 33757764
33297857 33267927 33777969 34177955 34407946
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions https://bit.ly/3o3upgR
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