MD 1927 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR ERN KS AND WRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1927
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1255 PM CST THU NOV 05 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS AND WRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 051855Z - 052030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT
SUMMARY...INCREASING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY PROBABLY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS
OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY THROUGH
21-23Z.
DISCUSSION...THE LEADING EDGE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG AN
APPARENT PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE...ROUGHLY ALIGNED
WITH A 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY 850 MB JET STREAK...CONTINUES TO SPREAD
INTO THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS OCCURRING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY IN THE PROCESS OF ACCELERATING
NORTH NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WHICH IS ALSO
LEADING TO STRENGTHENING OF CYCLONIC 500 MB FLOW TO 90+ KT WITHIN A
NARROW BELT ACROSS THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION...TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.
AS THIS CONTINUES THROUGH THE 21-23Z TIME FRAME...STORMS SHOULD
PROGRESS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS...INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE WITH
SURFACE HEATING. CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS NOW BEGINNING TO FORM IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE
FRONT...ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF WEAK
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH GREATER
SURFACE HEATING. REGARDLESS...IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG OR
STRENGTHENING...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL...SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER
MEAN FLOW /ON THE ORDER OF 40-50+ KT/...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY
BECOME AN INCREASING CONCERN. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ALSO
APPEARS POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST STORMS...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.
..KERR/CORFIDI.. 11/05/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37639672 38609650 39159582 40519476 40519353 40059272
38919301 37579397 37109481 37099634 37639672
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/20xIget
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