MD 1935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SERN NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1935
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1008 AM CST MON NOV 09 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NC COAST AND OUTER BANKS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 091608Z - 091845Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A BRIEF TORNADO WILL UNDERGO A MODEST
INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SERN NC COAST AND A PORTION OF THE
OUTER BANKS. THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL AND LIMITED
IN AREA FOR ANY WW ISSUANCE.
DISCUSSION...LATE THIS MORNING A COASTAL FRONT WAS LOCATED JUST OFF
THE SERN NC COAST...AND A FEW LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS WITH NO LIGHTNING
CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF AND JUST OFFSHORE. SHORT-TERM
TENDENCY SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN AS IT CROSSES THE BOUNDARY
AND MOVES INLAND WHERE THE NEAR-SFC LAYER IS STABLE. HOWEVER...THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO COASTAL NC AS A WEAK SFC LOW
DEVELOPS NEWD ALONG THIS FEATURE AND AS A SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH
VEERING 0-1 KM WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW
LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS AS THIS BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND...AND A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
ONSHORE WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR.
..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 11/09/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM...
LAT...LON 34687647 34447725 33947792 33977833 34607757 35087628
35117589 34687647
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1lg3nSs
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