SPC MD 195

MD 0195 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR DEEP S INTO SERN TX

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0729 AM CST WED MAR 09 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S INTO SERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 091329Z - 091530Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...PERIODIC STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF SRN AND COASTAL TX THROUGH MORNING...WITH WIND AND
HAIL THE MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE AS WELL
ESPECIALLY OVER SERN TX INTO SWRN LA LATER TODAY.

DISCUSSION...AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD JUST
AHEAD AND ALONG AN ADVANCING FRONT/OUTFLOW FROM NW OF HOUSTON INTO
NWRN LA. THESE STORMS HAVE ONLY SHOWN PERIODIC STRONG CORES...AND
LITTLE OR NO ROTATION/MESOCYCLONES DESPITE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
IT IS LIKELY THAT LOW-LEVEL STRETCHING IS FAIRLY WEAK DUE TO
RELATIVELY COOL BOUNDARY LAYER BELOW THE LFC. HOWEVER...A
CONDITIONAL TORNADO THREAT EXISTS GIVEN THE STRONG SHEAR AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY...SHOULD FORCING BECOME MORE FAVORABLE EITHER ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF...WITH POCKETS OF HEATING...OR ANY MESO LOW THAT CAN
FORM.

TO THE S...MORE ROBUST STORMS WITH HIGH ECHO TOPS AND HAIL CORES ARE
DEVELOPING IN CLUSTERS ACROSS DEEP S TX...WITH MOVEMENT PARALLEL TO
THE UPPER FLOW IN A NNEWD DIRECTION. MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A THREAT OF ORGANIZED STORMS AS
THEY CONTINUE NNEWD TOWARD THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND POSSIBLY
EVENTUALLY PIVOTING NEWD TOWARD SERN TX WHERE MODEL CONSENSUS
INDICATES PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH THE DAY. IN THE SHORT
TERM...SOMEWHAT MORE STABLE AIR EXISTS ALONG THE MIDDLE TX COAST
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE NWD PROGRESSION OF THE S TX ACTIVITY.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/09/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   26109846 28149911 29349797 31789470 31749388 31259324
            30499312 29619354 29089485 28439606 27819689 27019723
            26319742 25909770 26109846 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1M6qYvR