SPC MD 1997

MD 1997 CONCERNING FREEZING RAIN FOR NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL TO EAST-CENTRAL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0232 AM CST FRI NOV 27 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL TO
EAST-CENTRAL KS

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 270832Z - 271330Z

SUMMARY...AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE LIQUID PRECIPITATION WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWEST OK FOR THE NEXT
2-3 HOURS /UNTIL 10-11Z/...WITH THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSING INTO NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BY 09-10Z AND TO
PART OF EAST-CENTRAL KS BY 11-13Z.  FREEZING RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIP TYPE...WITH RATES OF 0.05-0.10 INCHES PER 3 HOURS
LIKELY.  HIGHER RATES UP TO 0.10-0.15 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION.

DISCUSSION...AT 08Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A RELATIVELY
NARROW AREA OF PRECIPITATION TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
EASTERN TX PANHANDLE INTO NORTHWEST OK...WITH SOME EMBEDDED
CONVECTION WITH  REFLECTIVITY VALUES EXCEEDING 35 DBZ AND LIKELY
SUPPORTING HIGHER PRECIPITATION RATES.  THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADING TO THE
NORTHEAST ATTENDANT TO A PROGRESSIVE...WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN KS THROUGH 12Z.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO AT OR BELOW 32 F ACROSS THE
DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...
A 6-8 C WARM NOSE IN THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE PER 06Z RAP
FORECAST SOUNDINGS...CENTERED AROUND 850-750 MB...WILL CONTINUE
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE.  SLEET MAY
DEVELOP FROM WEST-EAST AS THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE BEGINS TO
COOL.

..PETERS.. 11/27/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

LAT...LON   36509961 37009946 37599820 38019711 38269632 38299553
            37989549 37619579 37119651 36689737 36259812 35899885
            35879928 36039954 36509961 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/21jm2gI