MD 2007 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA…FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA…AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2007
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0542 PM CST SAT DEC 12 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...FAR SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...AND FAR NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 122342Z - 130145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL EXCEEDING SEVERE
THRESHOLDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER AT LEAST THE
NEXT 3 HOURS. A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
DISCUSSION...AN UPTICK IN ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED ACROSS
THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER THE PAST HOUR OR SO. THESE CONVECTIVE
TRENDS ARE MOST LIKELY TIED TO THE FOLLOWING MESOSCALE PROCESSES..
1/ THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN TEXAS AND
2/ ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS ORIENTED NEARLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE LEADING EDGE
OF A COLD DOME CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.
WITH TIME...THE APPROACH OF A SYNOPTIC-SCALE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER
NEW MEXICO AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER CELLS. A WW
IS NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED.
..COOK/HART.. 12/12/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 37359879 37569917 38019940 38539943 39079921 39699882
40269825 40619757 40759702 40919574 40629472 39999442
39459481 38839586 38109676 37639752 37379817 37359879
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1mhpnwP
Be First to Comment