MD 0201 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEASTERN KS…FAR SOUTHEASTERN NE…NORTHERN MO…AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0948 PM CST Thu Feb 23 2017
Areas affected...Northeastern KS...far southeastern NE...northern
MO...and southern/central IA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 240348Z - 240615Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Isolated marginally severe hail may occur with elevated
thunderstorms through the early overnight hours. Watch issuance is
unlikely.
DISCUSSION...A band of elevated convection located over far
southeastern NE as of 0330Z is associated with forcing for ascent
attendant to a shortwave trough over the central Plains and a
strengthening low-level jet over MO/IA. These thunderstorms will
very likely remain elevated to the north of a frontal boundary as a
surface low across southeastern KS translates northeastward across
MO toward western IL overnight. Although near-surface moisture will
be meager, sufficient low-level moisture centered around 850 mb per
the 00Z Topeka, KS sounding combined with steep mid-level lapse
rates in excess of 8 degrees C/km will generally support MUCAPE of
250-1000 J/kg, decreasing with northward extent into central IA.
Effective shear on the order of 40-60 kt will support updraft
organization, and isolated instances of marginally severe hail may
occur through the early overnight hours if thunderstorms can remain
relatively discrete. With time, clustering of thunderstorms cores
will likely occur as they move northeastward into an increasingly
marginal thermodynamic environment in central/northern IA.
..Gleason/Hart.. 02/24/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39189605 39419667 40809630 41399589 42459369 42639224
42439137 41659092 40839089 39619344 39129518 39189605
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2lQADUp
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