MD 0201 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 0201
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0138 PM CDT Sun Apr 01 2018
Areas affected...Parts of the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi
Valleys
Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation
Valid 011838Z - 012245Z
SUMMARY...Moderate to locally heavy snow (rates up to 1"/hour) is
expected to develop from northern Missouri to central Illinois this
afternoon. Additionally, a mixture of sleet and freezing rain is
forecast to continue over southern portions of the discussion area.
DISCUSSION...A low-amplitude shortwave trough is advancing eastward
over the central Plains this afternoon. In advance of this system,
broad warm advection and related isentropic ascent is fostering
expanding precipitation from eastern Kansas to the mid Mississippi
Valley. Moreover, a band of generally moderate snowfall is maturing
over primarily northern Missouri in response to amplifying mid-level
frontogenetic circulations. Over the next few hours, localized
snowfall rates up to 1"/hour may be experienced from parts of the
lower Missouri Valley eastward to west-central Illinois, especially
as lower levels saturate later this afternoon. Satellite/radar data,
upstream observed soundings, and forecast soundings suggest pockets
of convective enhancement may boost snowfall rates as well.
While snowfall should predominate across northern Missouri, recent
KEAX correlation coefficient (CC) data (primarily at higher tilts)
indicate that the northern edge of a melting layer resides along a
line from Shawnee Co, KS eastward to Saline Co, MO. CC data evidence
some descent of the melting layer along this northern edge,
indicating a likelihood of sleet mixing with freezing rain this
afternoon, and this notion is generally supported by surface
observations.
..Picca.. 04/01/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39718971 39318983 38959082 38399367 38229445 38269519
38569595 39129602 39899556 39959547 40219505 40419429
40509230 40529015 40368979 39718971
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2lQADUp
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