MD 2097 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…NRN MO…EXTREME SERN NEB…CNTRL/SRN/ERN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2097
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0335 AM CST MON DEC 28 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...NRN MO...EXTREME SERN
NEB...CNTRL/SRN/ERN IA
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 280935Z - 281530Z
SUMMARY...WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THIS
INCLUDES AREAS OF SNOW -- SOME LOCALLY HEAVY -- ALONG WITH SOME
AREAS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.
DISCUSSION...AMPLE WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WELL TO THE NE OF A
STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF THE SRN GREAT
PLAINS IS SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE OF RADAR RETURNS
FROM NERN KS INTO NWRN MO. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE WITHIN THE
EVOLVING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS AMPLE DEEP MOISTURE -- CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED IN
THE LOWER MS VALLEY -- FEEDS INTO THE DEFORMATION ZONE WHERE
FRONTOGENETIC ASCENT WILL STRENGTHEN. GIVEN SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
AT THE SFC...A MIX OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL AFFECT THE
AREA.
AREAS OF SNOW WILL SPREAD NWD/NEWD FROM PARTS OF NERN KS THROUGH
CNTRL IA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. ON THE SRN FLANK OF THE SNOW...A
ZONE OF MIXED-PHASED PRECIPITATION IS ALREADY BECOMING ESTABLISHED
FROM THE KANSAS CITY AREA TO S-CNTRL IA. THIS IS WHERE AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER IS SUPPORTING PARTIAL TO COMPLETE MELTING OF DESCENDING
HYDROMETEORS PRIOR TO RE-FREEZING WITHIN A SFC-BASED SUB-FREEZING
LAYER -- RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. THE TRANSITION-ZONE
PRECIPITATION MAY TEND TO DEVELOP NWD THROUGH THE MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL TRACK OF THE PARENT
EXTRATROPICAL-CYCLONE CENTER AND RELATED STRONGER ELEVATED WARM
ADVECTION.
THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGH
THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY AROUND OR AFTER 12Z...WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BROADER PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADING NWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
MORNING. SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 1.0 INCH TO LOCALLY 1.5 INCHES PER
HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE. FREEZING-RAIN RATES MAY LOCALLY REACH AROUND
ONE-TENTH INCH PER HOUR...WITH SLEET-ACCUMULATION RATES LOCALLY
REACHING AROUND ONE-QUARTER-INCH PER HOUR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS.
..COHEN.. 12/28/2015
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 38929600 40279575 42609369 42799170 41969114 41149169
39769322 38379480 38289557 38929600
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1mdSVf4
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