MD 0222 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NCNTRL TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0213 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 170713Z - 170945Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK
ACROSS NCNTRL TX. WW ISSUANCE WILL NOT EXPECTED.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DIFFUSE BOUNDARY EXTENDING
EAST TO WEST ACROSS CNTRL TX WITH ELY WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TX. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY OVER THE TOP OF A SHARP
TEMP INVERSION IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. A 30 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS
LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST TX AND THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO WARM ADVECTION
ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHICH IS AIDING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. IN
ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NCNTRL TX SUGGEST
EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WHICH WILL MAKE STORM
ROTATION POSSIBLE. THE STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.0 C/KM. THE LATEST SHORT-TERM MODEL
SOLUTIONS KEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NCNTRL TX ISOLATED WITH
ONLY ONE OR TWO MORE STORMS INITIATING THROUGH DAYBREAK. CELLS MAY
BE CONDUCIVE TO SPLIT DUE TO UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES ABOVE THE
SFC INVERSION.
..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 03/17/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 32679652 32329731 32579834 32959847 33409833 33719811
33889761 33679642 32679652
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1S5yU4V
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