MD 0254 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF ERN KS…WRN MO…FAR NERN OK…FAR NWRN AR
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0254
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0617 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...WRN MO...FAR NERN OK...FAR
NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 232317Z - 240145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PARTS OF FAR ERN KS INTO EXTREME NERN OK DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...AND SPREAD EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN MO AND PERHAPS FAR NWRN
AR. A FEW INSTANCES OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS SVR HAIL
COULD OCCUR...AND WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...STRONG DEEP ASCENT PRECEDING A COMPACT MID-LEVEL
CYCLONE CROSSING PARTS OF THE CNTRL GREAT PLAINS IS CONTRIBUTING TO
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AMIDST A PLUME OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL RETURN
MOISTURE E OF A DRYLINE -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE
50S. AS THE CYCLONE-RELATED SFC LOW COMPLEX ANALYZED OVER N-CNTRL KS
CONTINUES TO SHIFT EWD...WITH E-OF-DRYLINE POLEWARD FLUXES OF
PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MARGINAL
DESTABILIZATION IN PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR...CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
AMPLE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP SHEAR...WITH VWPS AT SGF AND EAX SAMPLING
50-60 KT OF FLOW AROUND 3 KM AGL...MAY SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE
CLUSTERS /PERHAPS A FEW SUPERCELLS/. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY
SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL COULD OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE OVERALL DEARTH OF
DEEP MOISTURE -- I.E. PW AROUND 0.75 INCH PER GPS DATA -- AND
ANTECEDENT SFC-LAYER DIABATIC HEATING BEING STUNTED BY CIRRUS
CANOPIES AND SMOKE PLUMES FROM UPSTREAM FIRES...CAST CONSIDERABLE
DOUBT ON THE OVERALL PROSPECTS FOR SUFFICIENTLY WIDESPREAD ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR WW ISSUANCE. THIS IS PARTICULARLY THE
CASE AS NIGHTFALL APPROACHES AND MLCINH GROWS. REGARDLESS...
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY AND AMPLE DEEP SHEAR WARRANT SOME CONCERN FOR AN
EVOLVING SVR RISK INTO/THROUGHOUT THE EVENING HOURS.
..COHEN/HART.. 03/23/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 36669566 37899542 39009520 39379455 39289271 37899306
36649406 36369494 36669566
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1pTcJjZ
Be First to Comment