MD 0258 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS…NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA…SOUTHWEST MISSOURI…NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0258
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0602 PM CST Mon Mar 06 2017
Areas affected...Southeastern Kansas...northeast
Oklahoma...southwest Missouri...northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely
Valid 070002Z - 070100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to rapidly develop near a cold front
across southeast Kansas and northern/northeastern Oklahoma in the
next 1-2 hours. A tornado watch is likely to be needed in the next
hour or so. Storms will continue to pose a severe threat across
southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this evening.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging
eastward across eastern KS and trailing into OK panhandle. Ahead of
this front, a dryline stretched from just west of Wichita KS
southward to just west of Lawton OK. Strong surface flow exists both
ahead and behind the front, with 6 mb 2-hour pressure rises noted
behind the front. Ahead of the front, the strong southerly flow in
the low-levels was helping to create substantial looping hodographs
with 0-1 km SRH around 300 m2/s2 in the Ft. Smith and Tulsa areas
increasing to 400+ into northeast Kansas where tornadoes have
recently been confirmed.
A well-mixed boundary layer with mid to upper 70s temperatures along
with 57-60 dewpoints currently exists ahead of the cold front, with
a locally richer moist axis near the Arklatex where dewpoints were
in the mid 60s. In general, MLCAPE is around 1000-1500 J/kg, which
will certainly support severe storms given strong shear profiles.
The 00Z SGF sounding shows MUCAPE around 1200 J/kg, with a small
capping inversion near 700 mb and a hodograph quite supportive of
supercell and tornado threat. Storm mode is a little less certain
given the surging cold front, but a broken line of supercells would
contain a tornado risk given favorable wind shear, while a more
linear storm mode would favor damaging winds possibly with
embedded/QLCS tornado risk. Given cool temperatures aloft, some hail
is expected as well, with size maximized with any lone/discrete
supercells that may exist. Overall, the threat of supercells ahead
of the front does not appear high over KS/OK/SW MO, but an
increasing chance of isolated supercells might increase later
tonight across far eastern OK, western and northern AR, and south
central MO as the richer moisture lifts northeastward.
..Jewell/Guyer.. 03/07/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37959203 37569202 36919231 36389282 35779342 35419381
35119425 35079454 35179497 35259564 35549620 36159722
36409768 36539779 36809780 37199759 37539704 37959651
38649274 38329226 37959203
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2mP6Qwi
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