SPC MD 264

MD 0264 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN LA…SRN MS…CNTRL AND SRN AL…WRN FL PANHANDLE

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0264
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT THU MAR 24 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LA...SRN MS...CNTRL AND SRN AL...WRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241626Z - 241900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
AFTERNOON FROM SERN LA INTO CNTRL AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
LOCALIZED SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AND/OR A ISOLATED TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...A GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED LINE OF STORMS CONTINUES TO
EVOLVE AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT...FROM NEAR TUSCALOOSA SWWD TO
THE NEW ORLEANS VICINITY. THE STORMS OVER LA AND THE NRN GULF OF
MEXICO ARE MORE ROBUST IN TERMS OF ECHO TOPS DUE TO CLOSER PROXIMITY
TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WHILE CELLS TO THE N CONTINUE TO
LANGUISH ON THE NRN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL THETA-E RETURN. EVEN
SO...SOME OF THE NRN CELLS HAVE SHOWN A PROPENSITY FOR WEAK
ROTATION.

HODOGRAPHS AREA-WIDE ARE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES...WITH 0-1 SRH OF 200-300 M2/S2 AND A GRADUALLY
MOISTENING AND DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. GIVEN SPOTTY HEATING ACROSS
SRN AL AND WRN FL PANHANDLE...AND A GRADUAL NWD ADVECTION OF MID 60S
F DEWPOINTS...A RISK OF TORNADOES MAY MATERIALIZE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY...WITH A WATCH POSSIBLY NEEDED.

..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 03/24/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   29389052 30158973 32428838 33668756 33798680 33458627
            32698596 31628605 30538626 30338663 30198760 29898840
            29638874 29108884 28908934 28998988 29029033 29089057
            29389052 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/22y7MDV