MD 0275 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 70… FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0275
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Thu Mar 09 2017
Areas affected...Southeast Kansas to Northwest Arkansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70...
Valid 091904Z - 092030Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 70
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe threat continues across WW70. Severe threat is
also increasing along the western through southern flank of the
watch from southeast Kansas into northwest Arkansas. New severe
thunderstorm watch may be required to account for this threat.
DISCUSSION...Early-day convection that developed over southeast
Kansas has matured into a northwest-southeast oriented MCS as it
shifts into Missouri. Hail has been noted with the strongest
elevated updrafts and this threat should linger until the MCS shifts
east of the stronger buoyancy.
Of some concern is the new boundary-layer CU field deepening west of
CNU within a very steep low-level lapse rate environment. Latest
diagnostic data suggests this region is minimally capped and
low-level convergence is likely adequate for this activity to evolve
into strong/severe thunderstorms over the next few hours. Latest
thinking is supercells should develop by 21z over southeast KS then
propagate toward northern AR this evening. While large hail is the
primary threat, damaging winds may also accompany this surface-based
convection.
..Darrow.. 03/09/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38339556 38229455 37229275 36169339 36409508 37489623
38339556
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2mqnyRb
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