SPC MD 288

MD 0288 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF NERN KS…SERN NEB…NWRN/WRN MO…AND SWRN IA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0288
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN/WRN MO...AND
SWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301956Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SEVERE RISK SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM. WW
ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...19Z SFC ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 998 MB SFC LOW OVER ERN
NEB...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS CNTRL/ERN
KS. A THERMAL GRADIENT/WEAK WARM FRONT STRUCTURE EXTENDS EWD FROM
THE SFC LOW ACROSS CNTRL IA. MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MCD AREA HAS
BEEN MORE LIMITED COMPARED TO LOCATIONS FURTHER S...WITH DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60. VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
SOME AGITATED CUMULUS ACROSS NERN KS AND SERN NEB AS OF 1945Z
ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH DISPLACED
WELL TO THE W OF THE SFC LOW...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN
WEAK/NEBULOUS...LIMITING CONFIDENCE IN THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IF THUNDERSTORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...THEY COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS GIVEN MLCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. 18Z SOUNDINGS FROM KTOP AND KOAX REVEAL
VEERED/MODEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS...SUGGESTING THE TORNADO THREAT IS LOW
AT THIS TIME.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 03/30/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   38159585 38529628 38659650 39919594 41469614 41659535
            41659449 41069410 40049390 38209423 38089507 38159585 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1TjbyLK