MD 0324 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SERN AL / SWRN AND S-CNTRL GA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0446 AM CDT FRI APR 01 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AL / SWRN AND S-CNTRL GA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 010946Z - 011115Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...CONTINUING TO MONITOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF A NEW TORNADO WATCH ACROSS SERN AL EWD INTO S-CNTRL
GA.
DISCUSSION...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
--DEWPOINTS AOA 70 DEG F-- WITH STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATING WINDS
ARE SOUTHERLY TO THE SOUTH OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AROUND CSG TO MCN.
THE RELATIVELY BACKED FLOW AT THE SURFACE IS ACTING TO ENLARGE THE
LOW-LEVEL CURVATURE IN THE HODOGRAPH /REFERENCE KEOX VAD/. SINCE
09Z...ECHO TOPS HAVE INCREASED WITH THE CELLULAR CONVECTION WITHIN A
BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ACROSS S-CNTRL AL. GIVEN THIS TREND IN RADAR
IMAGERY...THIS LIKELY IMPLIES UPDRAFT INTENSITY IS INCREASING AND A
CELLULAR MODE WOULD FAVOR AT LEAST SOME CONCERN FOR SUPERCELL
MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. IF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES EVOLVE OR APPEAR
IMMINENT...THE MODERATELY HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT WOULD LIKELY
ACCENTUATE POTENTIAL FOR A CONDITIONAL SUPERCELL-TORNADO RISK. IN
SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO MONITORED EARLY THIS
MORNING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORM
ORGANIZATION/STRENGTHENING.
..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 04/01/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 31528670 32278561 32538508 32528386 32048317 31668318
31318359 31388363 31288670 31528670
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1q8FxuF
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