MD 0337 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CNTRL INTO NERN KS…NWRN MO AND SERN NEB…SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0337
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0607 PM CDT TUE APR 05 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL INTO NERN KS...NWRN MO AND SERN NEB...SWRN IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 052307Z - 060130Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ALONG WITH MAINLY SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING FROM CNTRL KS
INTO NWRN MO/SERN NEB AND SWRN IA.
DISCUSSION...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER SWRN KS...WITH A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS CNTRL INTO NERN KS. THIS
TROUGH IS ALSO COINCIDENT WITH THE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE AXIS WHERE
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
WAS SURGING SWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...AND WILL ALSO BE
DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN KS/SRN NEB LATER TODAY.
STRONG SLY SFC WINDS WERE ALREADY PRESENT AT 23Z BENEATH WHAT WILL
BECOME AN EVEN STRONGER LOW-LEVEL JET THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO
THE CNTRL PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MOISTURE IS QUITE LIMITED WITH
MEAN BL DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S F WITHIN THE MOIST AXIS OVER ERN
KS...BUT STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES
SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR A BAND OF HIGH-BASED STORMS TO
DEVELOP NEAR THE COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES DO
EXIST...AND THIS MAY ALLOW A FEW STORM CORES TO PRODUCE MARGINAL
HAIL ESPECIALLY N OF THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY
SEVERE WIND GUSTS AS DOWNDRAFTS DEVELOP INTO THE DEEPLY-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER.
..JEWELL/CORFIDI.. 04/05/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38529924 39509765 40399685 40809637 40999573 40899513
40589478 39939463 39869463 39149466 38309506 37949537
37409675 37269790 37269855 37279883 37599939 37829957
38199956 38529924
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1gqBYUs
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