MD 0343 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 72… FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO…AND SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0343
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0743 PM CDT Thu May 03 2018
Areas affected...Northeast KS...northwest MO...and southern and
central IA
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72...
Valid 040043Z - 040145Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 72
continues.
SUMMARY...Severe-weather threat across northeast Kansas through
northwest Missouri to southern and central Iowa will diminish this
evening. WW 72 can be allowed to expire as scheduled at 01Z.
DISCUSSION...At 0030Z, mosaic radar imagery showed most of the storm
activity had developed into a line extending from near DSM southwest
to STJ, with broken convection along a wind shift extending
southwest into eastern KS. In addition to these storms, a few
storms were tracking north in the post-wind-shift environment
northeast of MHK. Forcing for ascent/height falls attendant to a
shortwave trough tracking toward IA and the lower Missouri Valley
should support additional thunderstorm development this evening into
the overnight.
Residual marginal instability, effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 mainly
across central into part of eastern IA, and strong effective bulk
shear suggests storm organization is possible yet in the short term.
The aforementioned low-level shear also suggests a brief tornado
threat cannot be ruled out along the leading part of the QLCS.
However, this threat and additional severe threats will continue to
diminish, given further boundary-layer stabilization with the loss
of daytime heating.
..Peters.. 05/04/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39079686 40009608 40299536 40509491 41859384 41869275
41829235 40639241 39469400 39009548 39079686
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2w8ke47
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