MD 0366 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS…SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0366
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0242 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Areas affected...South-central Kansas...Southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 171942Z - 172215Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Agitated cumulus has begun to develop along a
quasi-stationary boundary draped across south-central Kansas. With
continued surface heating and mid-level ascent approaching, storm
development is expected in the next 2-3 hours. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats with this activity,
with a transition to a primary wind threat as storms grow upscale. A
severe thunderstorm watch is likely in the next 2-3 hours.
DISCUSSION...Near and south of a quasi-stationary boundary from
south-central Kansas into northeastern Kansas, temperatures have
warmed into the upper-70s with dewpoints in the upper-50s to low
60s. Some mid-level clouds associated with a lead shortwave impulse
have slowed boundary layer destabilization somewhat. However, as
temperatures continue to warm and the main ascent from the mid-level
trough continues to overspread the southern/central Plains, storms
are expected to develop from southwest to northeast along the
boundary. MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg and effective deep-layer
shear of 35-45 kts will support organized convection. Steep
mid-level lapse rates of around 8 C/km will support a threat for
large hail with initial thunderstorm activity. Storms are expected
to grow upscale rather quickly given the boundary-parallel shear
vectors. Damaging wind gusts will be possible, particularly with any
bowing segments that may develop.
..Wendt/Grams.. 04/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37389917 38099758 38629588 38409540 37759561 37239656
37209715 37109819 37079909 37149929 37389917
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2Umgum9
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