SPC MD 370

MD 0370 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI

Mesoscale Discussion 0370
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0511 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

Valid 172211Z - 172345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

SUMMARY...Storms have started to form along the cold front in
northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. These storms may be capable
of large hail. A severe thunderstorm watch will be needed shortly.

DISCUSSION...Low-level moisture advection and diabatic heating has
destabilized the area ahead of the cold front over the past few
hours. This has led to sufficient buoyancy for storm development
along the cold front in northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri.
Additionally a storm has developed in east central Kansas in the
eastern portion of severe thunderstorm watch 76. Most convective
allowing guidance suggests the primary area of strong storm
development will be associated with additional development along the
boundary where this initial storm has developed. Steep mid-level
lapse rates (8.0 to 8.5 C/km per RAP mesoanalysis) and effective
shear around 40 to 45 knots per TWX VWP will support a threat for
large hail from these storms. A severe thunderstorm watch will be
needed shortly.

..Bentley/Hart.. 04/17/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39559619 40069557 40479472 40549429 40569330 40399208
            38829264 38509326 38089414 38739521 38989563 39279611
            39559619 

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