MD 0374 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 76… FOR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0374
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0608 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2019
Areas affected...Northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76...
Valid 172308Z - 180045Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 76
continues.
SUMMARY...Widespread storm development is expected through 01Z. The
initial threat will be large hail with a quick transition to
damaging winds.
DISCUSSION...23Z visible satellite imagery and composite radar
imagery suggest the storm initiation is likely along the entire
stationary front within the next 1 to 2 hours. Given MLCAPE around
2500 J/kg and effective shear around 45 to 40 knots per RAP
mesoanalysis, initial storm mode is expected to be supercellular. In
addition, very steep mid-level lapse rates between 8.5 and 9 C/km
will support a threat for very large hail initially. These storms
are expected to grow upscale rather quickly which will likely end
the very large hail threat. As this upscale growth continues and a
cold pool becomes better established, damaging wind gusts are
expected to be the primary threat later this evening and into the
overnight hours.
..Bentley.. 04/17/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 37029913 37649815 38759541 38689485 37879475 37179485
36389566 35809771 35609847 35679903 36239951 37029913
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2UoOa2F
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