SPC MD 448

MD 0448 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KS…NORTHWEST MO…FAR SOUTHEAST NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0448
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST MO...FAR SOUTHEAST NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 260718Z - 260915Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY THROUGH DAYBREAK. WHILE THE PREDOMINANT MODE SHOULD BE
CLUSTER...A FEW TRANSIENT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES MAY FORM WITH A
PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...ARCING BAND OF CONVECTION HAS BECOME EVIDENT IN
INFRARED IMAGERY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KS TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO
AREA. TIME-SERIES OF TOPEKA VWP DATA INDICATES INCREASINGLY VEERED
FLOW WITHIN THE 1-2 KM AGL LAYER. THIS IS LIKELY SUPPORTING
ADVECTION OF THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME/INSTABILITY AXIS FROM CENTRAL
KS. WITH PERSISTENT WAA...CONVECTION SHOULD FURTHER INCREASE IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STOUT EML. WHILE MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
MODEST...SPEED SHEAR WITH HEIGHT SHOULD PROMOTE HAIL GROWTH ALONG
THE GRADIENT OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE. AS THIS
GRADIENT SHIFTS EAST THROUGH DAYBREAK...SETUP MAY SUPPORT A FEW
TRANSIENT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.

..GRAMS/EDWARDS.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

LAT...LON   38949880 39609876 40089834 40359734 40339574 40209455
            40069373 39709334 39389317 38949310 38379345 38439405
            38719550 38789807 38949880 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1IUge2v