SPC MD 45

MD 0045 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0045
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0451 AM CST FRI JAN 22 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...FL PANHANDLE/FAR SOUTHWEST GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 221051Z - 221215Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 7 EXPIRES AT 11Z/6AM EST. AN ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND/BRIEF TORNADO RISK MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE FL
PANHANDLE BEYOND 11Z...BUT AN ADDITIONAL WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...A BROKEN SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED BOWS/MESOVORTICES
CONTINUES PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE/SOUTHWEST GA AS OF 1030Z/530AM EST. CONSISTENT WITH
LIGHTNING/INFRARED-SATELLITE INDICATED CLOUD-TOP TRENDS...THE
STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
PANHANDLE WITHIN 30-50 MILES OF THE COAST WHERE A SOMEWHAT
WARMER/MORE MOIST LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXISTS. LOCALLY DAMAGING
WINDS/BRIEF TORNADO WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITHIN A HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AS PER TALLAHASSEE WSR-88D VWP DATA.
HOWEVER...AS THE STRONGER CONVECTION CONTINUES TO ENCOUNTER A
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS INLAND /50S F SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS/...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY MARGINAL/LOCALIZED EARLY THIS MORNING.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/22/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

LAT...LON   29488508 30548496 31078469 30938397 30238303 29458359
            29488508 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1JofPuy