MD 0450 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104… FOR NORTHEAST KS…FAR SOUTHEAST NEB…NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0437 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS...FAR SOUTHEAST
NEB...NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...
VALID 260937Z - 261100Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104
CONTINUES.
SUMMARY...SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY SHORT-TERM THREAT WITH
A STORM CLUSTER ALONG THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB BORDER. BY
ABOUT 12Z...STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP
AND POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A DOWNSTREAM WW ISSUANCE INTO WEST MO.
DISCUSSION...SEVERAL UPDRAFTS WITH FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS HAVE
CONGEALED INTO A CLUSTER ALONG THE NORTHEAST KS/SOUTHEAST NEB
BORDER. THIS CORRIDOR REMAINS WITHIN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
LARGE HAIL...ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE EML/VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL INFLOW OF MODERATE TO LARGE BUOYANCY GIVEN
THE GULF MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WITH THE TRANSITION TO A
PREDOMINANT CLUSTER MODE...HAIL SIZE GROWTH WILL PROBABLY BE LIMITED
BY DESTRUCTIVE INTERFERENCE...BUT ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH/WEST FLANKS. DESPITE
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE CLUSTER AT PRESENT...AMALGAMATION OF COLD
POOLS MAY SUPPORT A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS ALONG THE MUCAPE
GRADIENT TOWARDS THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA...A SCENARIO REASONABLY
SIMULATED BY 00Z WRF-NSSL. GIVEN PRESENCE OF 60-65 DEGREE F SURFACE
DEW POINTS SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A THREAT FOR STRONG TO ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP IN ADDITION TO THE OVERARCHING HAIL
HAZARD.
..GRAMS.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 40099812 40279708 40259587 39929459 39439367 38819324
38469343 38379390 38499455 38989573 39279711 39639832
40099812
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1VzpEKz
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