SPC MD 451

MD 0451 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104…105… FOR NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL MO…NORTHEAST KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0451
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 AM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL MO...NORTHEAST KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 104...105...

VALID 261218Z - 261345Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
104...105...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...MCS OVER NORTHEAST KS SHOULD ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE LOWER MO VALLEY THROUGH LATE MORNING. A SWATH OF SEVERE
WIND/HAIL APPEARS LIKELY...INCLUDING NORTHERN PARTS OF THE KANSAS
CITY METRO AREA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

DISCUSSION...LONGER-LIVED SUPERCELL EMBEDDED WITHIN AN MCS RECENTLY
EVOLVED INTO AN ACCELERATING SMALL-SCALE BOW ECHO OVER
NEMAHA/JACKSON/BROWN COUNTY KS...WITH SEVERAL DOWNSTREAM UPDRAFTS
ALONG THE NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST MO BORDER AREA. THESE CELLS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO AMALGAMATE ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS NORTHERN MO. FLANKING DEVELOPMENT FORCED BY THE REMNANT
EASTERN BRANCH OF THE LLJ AND FORWARD PROPAGATION SHOULD RESULT IN
LARGE-SCALE MOTION TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS CENTRAL MO ALONG
THE MUCAPE GRADIENT. OVERALL SCENARIO REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF A MIX OF
SEVERE WIND/HAIL EVENTS WITHIN A SWATH THAT SHOULD INCLUDE AT LEAST
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA.

..GRAMS.. 04/26/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39819561 40029516 40119464 39929337 39679235 39409201
            39079202 38779212 38599229 38529282 38659351 38789430
            39029501 39249553 39509570 39819561 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1qPg4pR