MD 0456 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR CNTRL/ERN KS…FAR NERN OK…FAR SERN NEB
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0456
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0135 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN KS...FAR NERN OK...FAR SERN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
VALID 261835Z - 262030Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT
SUMMARY...TSTM COVERAGE WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE BY MID-AFTERNOON
ACROSS CNTRL/ERN KS...WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS...AND A
FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED IN THE
NEXT 1-2 HRS.
DISCUSSION...A BROAD ZONE OF MID-UPPER LEVEL ASCENT PRECEDING A
LARGE WRN CONUS TROUGH WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF KS WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HRS...PROMOTING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR RAPID TSTM DEVELOPMENT
BY MID-AFTERNOON. SFC ANALYSIS FROM 18Z PLACES A SFC LOW JUST E OF
GBD...WITH AN ATTENDANT DRYLINE PROTRUDING GENERALLY SWD INTO NWRN
OK...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NERN KS. WRN
SEGMENT OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER MCS HAS STALLED
ACROSS E-CNTRL KS...AND WEAK SFC PRESSURE FALLS TO THE N SUGGEST
THIS BOUNDARY MAY RETREAT NWD. EACH OF THESE FEATURES MAY PROVIDE A
FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON AS THE COMBINATION OF
DIURNAL HEATING AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT
EROSION OF CINH FOR SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT.
THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL
PLAINS...CHARACTERIZED BY VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL SOON
AFTER INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS TSTMS MAINTAIN
DISCRETE OR CLUSTER MODE TYPES. TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SOMEWHAT
COMPLICATED BY A SUBSTANTIAL MERIDIONAL COMPONENT TO THE DEEP-LAYER
FLOW AND GRADUAL TEMPORAL BACKING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW...AND
MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR. HOWEVER...TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED IN A RELATIVE SENSE NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT
ACROSS CNTRL KS...AND IN VICINITY OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT STRONG SLY COMPONENT TO STORM MOTIONS MAY
RESULT IN ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF INTERACTION WITH THESE BOUNDARIES.
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND CAM GUIDANCE SUGGEST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION WILL OCCUR DURING THE 19-21Z PERIOD OVER CNTRL KS. A
SEPARATE AREA OF CONCERN EMANATING OUT OF EXISTING ELEVATED
CONVECTION ORIGINATING OVER CNTRL OK MAY ALSO EXHIBIT INCREASING
ASSOCIATED SVR POTENTIAL ACROSS NERN OK AND INTO SERN KS. A TORNADO
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE COORDINATED IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS.
..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 38989853 39669824 40109811 40429700 40509617 39969577
38899534 38189519 37439540 36669578 36519604 36919707
37059838 37839851 38989853
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/2347b7S
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