MD 0464 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS / NWRN MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0464
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NEB / SWRN IA / NERN KS / NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262314Z - 270015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...A LARGE-HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING TO THE SW OVER NERN KS CASTS
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE NEED FOR A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS OVER NERN KS AND SERN NEB WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY BEING LARGE HAIL. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER-DAY MCS
--CURRENTLY OVER THE LOWER OH VALLEY-- ARCS NWWD INTO E-CNTRL KS.
STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND ATOP THE RESIDUAL COLD
POOL WITH PROCESSED AIR STILL EMANATING FROM CNTRL MO INTO NWRN MO.
YET...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER KS PRIOR TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE LARGE STORM CLUSTER LIKELY RESIDE IN POCKETS OVER NERN KS
INTO SERN NEB. AS THE UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS FARTHER E TOWARDS THE
REGION DURING THE EVENING...THERE WILL BE A TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
MOVE/DEVELOP DOWNSTREAM INTO PORTIONS OF NEB/IA/KS/MO LOCATED TO THE
NE OF THE ONGOING TORNADO WATCH. AS SUCH...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR HOW
MUCH AND WIDESPREAD OF A HAIL RISK MAY DEVELOP TO THE NE OF THE
EXISTING WATCH. WILL MONITOR CONVECTIVE TRENDS IN THE SHORT-TERM TO
ASSESS THE NEED FOR A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
..SMITH/GOSS.. 04/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 39089514 40409616 41199733 41639671 41149536 39419403
39089514
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1SINWhJ
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