MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KS AND PARTS OF SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0471
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1028 PM CDT Sun Apr 09 2017
Areas affected...Northeast KS and parts of southern IA and northern
MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 100328Z - 100530Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The potential exists for additional storms to develop
southward from the cluster of storms in southeast NE/southwest IA,
as the cold front overtakes the dry line in northeast KS late this
evening. Hail and locally strong wind gusts will be the primary
severe-weather threats. Overall coverage of new storm development
with southward extent remains uncertain. However, coverage with
existing storms, and even a few additional storms could prove
sufficient for WW issuance across parts of southern IA, northeast KS
and northern MO.
DISCUSSION...Trends in mosaic radar imagery into the mid-late
evening indicated the persistent storms moving from southeast NE
into far southwest IA have remained just to the west-northwest of
the cold front. Meanwhile, recent trends in the OAX WSR-88D suggest
outflow from these storms may be enhancing the southeast movement of
that portion of the cold front in far southeast NE. Additional
storms have developed immediately to the south-southwest in Gage and
Pawnee Counties NE and Marshall County KS as the cold front
intersected the southward-extending dry line.
Last several runs of the HRRR suggest additional storm development
should occur into northeast KS yet this evening into the early
overnight as the cold front continues to overtake the dry line, and
weak height falls spread east, while low-level warm air advection
increases along a southwesterly 45-50 kt low-level jet. Although
latest IR satellite imagery indicated little, if any, new cloud
development (south of the Marshall County KS storm) along the dry
line, there was some midlevel reflectivity development per 5 km and
7 km CAPPI data.
The environment east of the ongoing NE/southwest IA storms (and
potential new convective initiation) remains moderately unstable
with strong effective bulk shear supportive of organized storms.
..Peters/Guyer.. 04/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40379593 41039509 41499418 41439271 40669258 40179303
39659370 39179441 38559549 38709643 39109686 39549684
39899649 40379593
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2pj1Cpu
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