MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0474
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2019
Areas affected...southeast KS into southwest MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 290900Z - 291030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Locally strong wind gusts may persist another 1-2 hours as
the bow echo approaches west-central and southwest MO. Overall
severe threat will remain limited and a watch is not expected.
DISCUSSION...A mature bow echo is tracking across southeast KS early
this morning. Latest tracking info suggest the line is shifting east
at around 50-55 mph. This is consistent with regional 88-D VWP data
indicating south/southwesterly flow from around 1 to 6 km between 45
and 60 kt. Strong wind gusts may continue as the line approaches the
KS/MO border given the strength of the rear inflow and forward speed
of the line. However, instability quickly diminishes with eastward
extent where poorer quality moisture (surface dewpoints into the mid
40s to low 50s) exists across western MO. Furthermore,
boundary-layer inhibition is quite strong. Radar trends continue to
indicate further weakening and this is expected to continue as the
line pushes into west-central/southwest MO. While a locally strong
wind gust is possible, the overall severe threat is expected to
remain low and a watch is not expected.
..Leitman/Edwards.. 04/29/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38659556 38669502 38499405 38259358 37979329 37699329
37319348 37069376 36989419 36989442 37049519 37349626
37619661 37889650 38209593 38659556
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2LpBx8v
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