SPC MD 475

MD 0475 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST AND PART OF NORTHERN MO/SOUTHERN IA AND A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NEB

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0475
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS/NORTHWEST AND PART OF NORTHERN
MO/SOUTHERN IA AND A SMALL PART OF EASTERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271858Z - 272100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AND INCREASE SOME IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST KS AND
FAR SOUTHEAST NEB INTO NORTHWEST MO...AND SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE
REST OF NORTHERN MO...SOUTHERN IA...AND EASTERN NEB.  SEVERE-CALIBER
HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE GREATEST ACROSS
SOUTHERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING.

DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A 994-MB LOW
PRESSURE AREA IN EASTERN NEB WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHWEST IA INTO NORTHEAST MO AND
SOUTHERN IL...WHILE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT EXTENDED SOUTHWARD THROUGH
SOUTHEAST NEB AND EASTERN NEB.  A SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THROUGH CENTRAL KS AND CENTRAL OK.

MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHEAST KS
AND EAST-CENTRAL NEB ALONG THE DRY LINE/COLD FRONT AND THE
INTERSECTION OF THE WARM FRONT/DRY LINE...RESPECTIVELY.  COLD
MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS CLOSED LOW/TROUGH ARE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE WARM SECTOR.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR HAS STRENGTHENED TO SUPPORT
ORGANIZED STORMS...WHILE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST
IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT...ENHANCING AN ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT.

..PETERS/CORFIDI.. 04/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   41629620 41649539 41259329 40859228 40089243 39429382
            39209447 39139547 39779559 40289575 40879644 41069658
            41439665 41629620 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/24ktAjR