MD 0501 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144… FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS…NORTHWEST OK…FAR NORTHWEST TX PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 0501
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0735 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017
Areas affected...South-central KS...Northwest OK...Far northwest TX
Panhandle
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 144...
Valid 160035Z - 160200Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 144
continues.
SUMMARY...Primary severe threat across the watch areas is very large
hail, although damaging winds gusts and a tornado or two are also
possible.
DISCUSSION...After several unsuccessful attempts of storm
development across northwest OK over the past few hours, a pair of
supercells have developed across far south-central KS (in Comanche
county). Visible satellite imagery shows well developed overshooting
tops with these storms with recent radar imagery corroborating the
presence of strong updrafts. These strong updrafts in the presence
of cool mid-level temperatures and related steep mid-level lapse
rates will support a threat of severe hail, some of which could be
greater than 2 inch in diameter. Additionally, new development along
the pre-frontal trough extending from a surface low near GCK
northeastward to another low south of OMA will also pose a threat
for large hail as it track across the northern portions of the
watch. A strengthening low-level jet will also contribute to
strengthening low-level shear and a resultant non-zero tornado
threat, particularly with the semi-discrete activity within the open
warm sector, despite the general lack of any strongly backed surface
winds. Damaging wind gusts are also possible with these storms,
particularly after any upscale growth/cold pool amalgamation. Once
this upscale growth occurs, the already low tornado threat should be
reduced even further.
Farther south (in northwest OK and the adjacent far northeast TX
Panhandle), convective initiation has failed to materialize thus far
and recent trends in visible satellite imagery suggest a continued
absence of storms is likely.
..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
LAT...LON 37640059 38130034 38439977 38369825 37639820 36329860
35839976 36250107 37640059
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2pokkgD
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