MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST KS…NORTHEAST OK…AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0502
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0401 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHEAST OK...AND FAR SOUTHWEST MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 292101Z - 292300Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND/OR SEVERE HAIL WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS AND ADJACENT
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST OK...AND PERHAPS FAR SOUTHWEST MO /FROM
VERNON TO JASPER COUNTIES/.
DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LOCAL STORM REPORTS
INDICATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HAVE AFFECTED SOUTH-CENTRAL KS AND
NORTH-CENTRAL OK. AT 2044Z...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE
OF THIS ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM CHASE TO WILSON AND MONTGOMERY
COUNTIES KS...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING FROM COWLEY COUNTY KS
TO FAR WESTERN OSAGE COUNTY OK. E/NELY SURFACE WINDS AND A STABLE
ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO SUGGEST
THIS ACTIVITY IS ROOTED ABOVE THE SURFACE...AND LIKELY INGESTING
MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AT AND ABOVE 0.5 KM
AGL PER TLX AND TULSA VAD WINDS. THESE STORMS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
TROUGH THROUGH SOUTHEAST KS. CURRENT THINKING SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD OUTRUN THE BETTER INFLOW LAYER OF GREATER
INSTABILITY AS IT REACHES SOUTHWEST MO.
..PETERS/THOMPSON.. 04/29/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36769692 37349701 38159676 38329579 38369498 37959463
37429460 37119465 36859540 36699653 36769692
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1XYIkRM
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