MD 0502 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 144…145…146… FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KS…NORTHWEST MO…FAR NORTHWEST OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0502
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0920 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017
Areas affected...Central/eastern KS...northwest MO...far northwest
OK
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 144...145...146...
Valid 160220Z - 160345Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 144, 145,
146 continues.
SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms continue across portions of
central and eastern KS. The threat for hail and damaging wind gusts
will likely persist for the next few hours and downstream watch may
be needed to cover the resulting severe threat.
DISCUSSION...Recent surface analysis placed a low very near DDC with
a dryline extending southwestward through the OK and TX Panhandles.
A cold front, demarcated primarily by a shift to northwesterly
winds, was placed from BIE (in far southeast NE) southwestward to
RSL (in central KS) and then westward through west-central KS. The
cellular activity ahead of this front across central KS has not
moved substantially over the last hour or so but recent radar
imagery has shown more of a southeastward surge, suggesting the
forcing associated with approaching cold front (as well as cold pool
amalgamation) will result in upscale linear growth and a more
southeastward storm motion. Severe hail remains possible with this
activity with the threat persisting even after upscale growth
occurs. Some damaging wind gusts also remain possible. Expectation
is for this activity to continue southeastward throughout the night
and downstream watch issuance is possible across portions of eastern
KS and northwest MO.
Farther south (across south-central KS and adjacent far northwest
OK), the lone discrete supercell over Comanche county has shown a
weakening trend with continued nocturnal stabilization likely
supporting a continued downward trend. Severe threat with the
backbuilding activity north of PTT may linger past the expiration
time of Watch 144 and a local extension in time may be needed to
cover the potential threat.
..Mosier/Hart.. 04/16/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...
LAT...LON 38289989 39329766 39949441 39029349 37899567 36819942
38289989
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1XYIkRM
Be First to Comment