MD 0523 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS…WEST-CENTRAL MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0523
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017
Areas affected...East-central/southeast KS...West-central MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 200201Z - 200330Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...A downstream watch may be needed to address the potential
severe threat across east-central and southeast KS.
DISCUSSION...A line of severe thunderstorms is moving southeastward
across central KS at about 20-25 kt. This storm motion will put this
line of storms near the edge of watch 149 around 03Z. Some slowing
of the cold front and, as a result, the storms along it, is
anticipated as it becomes more displaced from its parent upper
system (currently moving across the northern Plains). Even so,
increasing low-level flow will increase convergence into the frontal
zone and the general expectation is for thunderstorms to persist for
the next several hours into east-central and southeast KS. Effective
bulk shear will remain supportive of organized updrafts but given
the linear storm mode and continually stabilizing low-levels, the
areal coverage of any severe threat is uncertain. Southwestward
backbuilding is expected across western portions of the front moving
into south-central KS. Some hail and wind threat is possible across
this area, particularly with any initial development, but, as with
area farther east, decreasing instability, a more linear storm mode,
and undercut nature to the convection suggest a fairly limited
overall severe threat. Convective trends across this entire region
will be monitored closely for potential downstream watch issuance.
..Mosier/Edwards.. 04/20/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...
LAT...LON 37509904 37989772 39149602 39399556 39519499 39549444
39399423 39119418 38919427 38579465 38299497 38039534
37739587 37109720 37079870 37509904
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2otwYcg
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