SPC MD 530

MD 0530 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KANSAS…NORTHERN MISSOURI…WEST-CENTRAL ILLINOIS

Mesoscale Discussion 0530
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 PM CDT Sat May 26 2018

Areas affected...Northeast Kansas...northern Missouri...west-central
Illinois

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

Valid 261759Z - 262030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Isolated to scattered storms are expected to form by
20-21Z from northeast Kansas into west-central Illinois.

DISCUSSION...Daytime heating combined with the presence of cool
temperatures aloft is leading to strengthening instability profiles,
with MUCAPE to around 3000 J/kg from KS across northern MO. A weak
surface trough should provide sufficient convergence when combined
with the lack of CIN later this afternoon to produce isolated to
scattered strong storms. Wind profiles will remain weak, and likely
favor east-southeastward moving cells capable of hail with eventual
outflows producing strong wind gusts. CAM solutions indicate
northeast KS into northwest MO as a favored area, with a secondary
area of development across west-central IL.

..Jewell/Hart.. 05/26/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...EAX...TOP...

LAT...LON   39519029 39269106 38949315 38669469 38779560 39619583
            40189353 40579165 40849060 40829010 40468979 40078979
            39519029 

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