SPC MD 590

MD 0590 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0590
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CDT TUE MAY 10 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHERN KANSAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 102314Z - 110045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSING A HAIL THREAT IN THE
DISCUSSION AREA ATTM.  TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF STORMS IN THE DISCUSSION AREA HAVE MATURED
AND POSE PRIMARILY A HAIL THREAT...WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS
ALSO POSSIBLE.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
WEAK TO MODERATE MID-LEVEL INSTABILITY /AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG
MUCAPE/ AND 30-40 KNOTS OF DEEP SHEAR.  LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS A BIT
WEAK DUE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...BUT THE AFOREMENTIONED
CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATION AND CONVERGENCE ALONG A SOUTHWARD-MOVING COLD
FRONT WILL SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION DURING THE EVENING.  AT THIS
TIME...CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OF STORMS IS IN QUESTION...AND ANY
INCREASE WOULD REQUIRE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.  TRENDS
ARE BEING MONITORED.

..COOK/CORFIDI.. 05/10/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...GLD...

LAT...LON   39810035 40200021 40689979 41369919 42019853 42269815
            42369770 42169702 41819670 41369670 40819695 40229735
            39869776 39519829 39289893 39269969 39300009 39400039
            39510046 39810035 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1VSoLgf