SPC MD 62

MD 0062 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTH FL

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0062
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0336 AM CST WED JAN 27 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 270936Z - 271130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SOME STRONGER STORMS POTENTIALLY CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR A WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO SHOULD GRADUALLY
MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF THE LOWER
KEYS...SOME OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED TRANSIENT SUPERCELLULAR
CHARACTERISTICS AROUND 30-50 MILES OFF THE PENINSULA...CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY APPROACH THE COAST OF FAR SOUTHWEST FL IN VICINITY OF
MAINLAND MONROE COUNTY AS OF 415 AM EST/0915Z. THESE STORMS ARE
OCCURRING IN VICINITY OF AN EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT THAT DELINEATES A
MORE MOISTURE-RICH MARITIME AIR MASS WITH NEAR 70F SURFACE
DEWPOINTS. IN CONJUNCTION WITH WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM KEY WEST AND
MIAMI...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND MOISTURE/MODEST BUOYANCY ARE MAXIMIZED
IN THIS NEAR-COASTAL PART OF THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. RECENT
TRENDS HAVE BEEN FOR WARMING CLOUD TOPS PER INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH DIMINISHING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AS
CONVECTION APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN FL PENINSULA. EVEN WITH THESE
RECENT TRENDS...GIVEN CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING INLAND...A FEW
STRONGER STORMS MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE PENINSULA AMID A STRONGLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUST AND/OR
WATERSPOUT/BRIEF TORNADO COULD OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

..GUYER/EDWARDS.. 01/27/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...KEY...TBW...

LAT...LON   26538203 26868130 26528072 26158039 25338060 24988091
            24628197 25498185 25688170 26538203 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/20s7A4N