MD 0682 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MO AND EASTERN KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0682
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1239 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017
Areas affected...Portions of MO and eastern KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 101739Z - 102015Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...An isolated severe-thunderstorm risk is developing across
portions of eastern KS and will spread into/across portions of MO
through the afternoon. Present indications are that Watch issuance
is unlikely.
DISCUSSION...Ascent accompanying a long-lived MCV is impinging upon
the western extent of a broad area characterized by modest return
moisture and moderate diurnal destabilization. As a result, remnant
convection has recently exhibited some intensification across
eastern KS, with new development noted as well. This activity will
continue spreading northeastward/eastward during the next several
hours. With surface dewpoints in the middle 60s amid at least modest
insolation ahead of this activity, MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg and
little inhibition will support widely scattered robust updrafts
aided by around 35-45 kt of effective shear. Isolated occurrences of
severe hail/wind will be possible. Local instances of cold-pool
amalgamation could maximize damaging-wind potential (albeit
modestly), especially as convection spreads into parts of central
MO, where low-level lapse-rate steepening has been most substantial.
However, with large-scale ascent being quite modest across the
region, reflected by a lack of convergence in the pre-convective
environment, convection should lack more substantial organization
thus minimizing severe coverage.
..Cohen/Guyer.. 05/10/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 37699500 38489535 39269513 39689452 39859373 39699257
39289210 37759284 37439395 37699500
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2r2WyaO
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