SPC MD 726

MD 0726 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0726
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0247 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL OK THROUGH ECNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 251947Z - 252145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP FROM
NCNTRL OK TO ECNTRL KS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THIS AFTERNOON A DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM A SFC LOW IN
WCNTRL KS SWWD THROUGH WRN OK AND NWRN TX. EAST OF DRYLINE A TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM CNTRL KS SWD INTO NCNTRL OK...AND THIS BOUNDARY
INTERSECTS THE NRN PORTION OF AN EXPANSIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT
EXTENDS FROM SRN AR THROUGH CNTRL AND NCNTRL OK. E-W
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE SFC LOW IN WCNTRL KS ENEWD
THROUGH NCNTRL KS.

LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME VERY
UNSTABLE IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE EML PLUME HAS ADVECTED ABOVE A
VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONTRIBUTING TO 3000-3500 J/KG MLCAPE.
HOWEVER...ATMOSPHERE STILL APPEARS CAPPED IN THIS REGION JUDGING BY
THE CHARACTER OF THE LOW CLOUDS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVER NCNTRL OK INTO SCNTRL KS BY 22Z AT THE INTERSECTION OF
THERMAL/MOIST AXIS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WEAKLY CONVERGENT
TROUGH/DRYLINE. GIVEN LINGERING CAP ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME AND
PRESENCE OF LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ALOFT...IT APPEARS LIKELY
THAT STORMS WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...35-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE
HAIL. A WINDOW WILL ALSO EXIST FOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY AS
THE LLJ STRENGTHENS DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DECOUPLES.

..DIAL/HART.. 05/25/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   36459752 37769766 38399808 38939735 38769628 37949590
            36779669 36459752 

Read more

from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1WU368h