MD 0739 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NERN KANSAS….NWRN MISSOURI…SERN NEBRASKA…SWRN IA
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0739
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 AM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KANSAS....NWRN MISSOURI...SERN NEBRASKA...SWRN
IA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 261533Z - 261630Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL IN LINGERING STORMS IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE SUBSTANTIVE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
DISCUSSION...A BRANCH OF THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TOWARD THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THIS MORNING. THE TENDENCY ALSO HAS BEEN FOR FLOW TO BACK FROM A
SOUTHWESTERLY TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT...AND THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...LINGERING
CONVECTION...SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ABOVE CONGLOMERATE
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...RECENTLY FOCUSED ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA...SEEMS LIKELY TO SUBSIDE.
NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 18-19Z DOES NOT APPEAR ENTIRELY OUT OF
THE QUESTION. THIS SEEMS MOST PROBABLE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A PLUME OF WARM AND MORE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED
MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PERHAPS ALONG
A CORRIDOR ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI/SOUTHWESTERN IOWA. HOWEVER...THIS
IS FAR FROM CERTAIN IN THE NEAR TERM...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
DIURNAL WEAKENING OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET.
..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
LAT...LON 40099734 40569672 40859542 40769448 40109492 39549473
39079408 38499442 38539608 39169657 39479747 40099734
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1scNS1d
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