MD 0740 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR N CNTRL OK…CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0740
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0108 PM CDT THU MAY 26 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL OK...CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 261808Z - 262015Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
SUMMARY...LONGER TERM SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. BUT TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.
DISCUSSION...IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID-LEVEL INHIBITION HAS WEAKENED SUFFICIENTLY
TO ALLOW FOR INCREASINGLY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE I-35/135
CORRIDOR OF NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS IS
OCCURRING IN THE PRESENCE OF A SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...
BENEATH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
SIZABLE CAPE.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...EAST OF THE DRYLINE
...AND SOUTHWEST OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR OF EASTERN KANSAS...IS RATHER
MODEST...PARTICULARLY IN LOW-LEVEL. SOME CONCERN EXISTS THAT AFTER
ONGOING...INITIAL INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL COULD BECOME MITIGATED AS INCREASING OUTFLOW IMPACTS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. HOWEVER...THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS COULD STILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT...WITH A RISK FOR
A TORNADO OR TWO. OTHERWISE...SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS APPEAR THE PRIMARY THREAT INTO THE 19-21Z TIME FRAME.
..KERR/HART.. 05/26/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
LAT...LON 36749850 37739874 38779835 39589773 39609599 38959531
37349534 36279716 36749850
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1Wn5DHt
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