MD 0784 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL KS…NORTHERN OK
Mesoscale Discussion 0784
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...South-central KS...Northern OK
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 192028Z - 192200Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...Severe threat is increasing across south-central KS and
extreme northern OK. Hail is the primary threat, though an isolated
tornado can not be ruled out.
DISCUSSION...A narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer heating has
developed from western OK into extreme south-central KS, per
surface-3km lapse rates on the order of 7 C/km. With minimal CINH
observed across this portion of KS/OK convection is expected to
gradually increase with continued heating, albeit modest due to
extensive cloud cover. Over the last hour or so thunderstorms have
gradually increased across southwest KS along the cold front. This
activity is expected to shift east into an air mass characterized by
dew points in the mid 60s with mid 70s temperatures. While
low-level shear is currently weak, deep-layer shear is more than
adequate for sustained rotating updrafts and a few supercells could
evolve across this region. Backed low-level flow may contribute to
the tornado potential, though hail is the primary risk.
..Darrow/Kerr.. 05/19/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36969828 37939804 38479671 38009586 37189582 36609751
36969828
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1pyEfFR
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