MD 0792 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHEAST KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0792
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0857 PM CDT Fri May 19 2017
Areas affected...Northeast KS
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 200157Z - 200300Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Localized tornado threat may exist for the next hour or
so.
DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows that a long-lived supercell
has become better organized as it enters an area of residual
low-level moisture near EMP. This slightly more favorable low-level
moisture and the resulting more moist inflow to the storm appears to
have supported an increase in intensity. Recent TWX VAD shows strong
veering within lowest 1 km with 0-1 km SRH over 400 m2/s2, which is
more than enough to support low-level rotation. Some localized
vorticity enhancement is also possible given the storms presence
within the warm frontal zone across the region. Given the limited
spatial extent of the better low-level moisture and continue
nocturnal stabilization, the longevity of the tornado threat with
this supercell is expected to be short-lived. Even so, a localized
tornado threat may exist for the next hour or so for this small
portion of east-central KS.
..Mosier/Hart.. 05/20/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...TOP...
LAT...LON 39039609 39209573 39159541 39009528 38709519 38519527
38429550 38419603 38569623 39039609
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1AwS4LY
Be First to Comment