MD 0861 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI VALLEY
Mesoscale Discussion 0861
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0328 PM CDT Sun Jun 24 2018
Areas affected...Portions of the Missouri Valley
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 242028Z - 242130Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...A few thunderstorms could pose a localized risk for gusty,
damaging winds and marginally severe hail. Watch issuance is not
expected.
DISCUSSION...Scattered thunderstorms have organized along a
northwest-southeast stationary front over Iowa this afternoon, and
other cells have formed near a weak surface low in eastern Nebraska.
Given plentiful surface heating and rich boundary-layer moisture,
MLCAPE values have risen to around 2000 J/kg, supporting several
stronger updrafts. However, weak low/mid-level flow will likely keep
storm modes as disorganized/merging multicells. In turn, propagation
will be driven by merging cold pools, which will locally enhance the
damaging wind potential. Strong anvil-layer storm-relative flow
could offer brief potential for marginally severe hail as well.
Nonetheless, watch issuance is not expected.
..Picca/Thompson.. 06/24/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...GID...
LAT...LON 41009295 42719425 42879552 42409731 41599754 39989631
39909499 40089391 40469287 40869276 41009295
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2MRRDUK
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