MD 0868 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0868
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0246 PM CDT Sat May 27 2017
Areas affected...Parts of southeastern Kansas
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 271946Z - 272045Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...A watch is not currently anticipated, but some risk for
occasional severe hail and wind may persist near sustained
convective development overspreading the region during the next few
hours. Much stronger storm development is expected to initiate to
the south and west of the region by early evening.
DISCUSSION...A small area of sustained vigorous thunderstorm
development continues to gradually develop east southeastward into
portions of the Flint Hills between Wichita and Emporia. This
activity is focused within the mid-level thermal gradient, on the
northern fringe of the plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed
layer air, which is gradually becoming suppressed
eastward/southward. Some further intensification appears at least
possible within the moist and modestly unstable post-frontal
environment across southeast Kansas, particularly near/along the
stalled western flank of convective outflow generated by ongoing
convection across southwest Missouri. This may be accompanied by the
continuing risk for occasional severe hail, and perhaps a risk for
locally strong surface gusts.
..Kerr/Hart.. 05/27/2017
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38299648 38569581 38209489 37819467 37469533 37719628
37889694 38299648
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/2r7NEZG
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