MD 0887 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY FOR FAR EASTERN KS…WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 0887
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 PM CDT Tue Jun 26 2018
Areas affected...far eastern KS...west-central and southwestern MO
Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely
Valid 261716Z - 261815Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will likely continue to develop and
intensify. The risk for severe gusts/hail is increasing.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows thunderstorms developing near the
I-70 corridor in eastern KS. If these storms are slightly elevated
in character, it is anticipated a transition to surface based will
ensue in the near term as these storms and other storms east of
Wichita continue to develop east into eastern KS. Visible satellite
imagery shows a bubbling cumulus field over eastern and southeastern
KS into west-central and southwestern MO to the south of a cold
front and to the west of rain-cooled outflow over central MO.
Surface temperatures have warmed to near 90 degrees in southeast KS
and into the lower 80s in the greater Kansas City metro. A very
moisture rich airmass characterized by middle 70s dewpoints over
eastern KS is contributing to extreme buoyancy and around 5500 J/kg
SBCAPE per modified RAP soundings over southeast KS. KTWX and KEAX
VAD data indicate 30-45 kt 2-6 km flow over the northern half of the
discussion area and this would potentially support severe multicells
and supercells given the extreme buoyancy in place. Large to very
large hail and severe gusts (50-60 kt) are possible with the
stronger storms this afternoon.
..Smith/Thompson.. 06/26/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 39019516 38989363 38619325 37749295 36929349 37049460
37209580 39019516
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://bit.ly/1SZffEN
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