MD 0923 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SRN IA…FAR SERN NEB…WRN MO…ERN/SRN KS…FAR NRN OK
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0923
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0615 PM CDT TUE JUN 14 2016
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR SRN IA...FAR SERN NEB...WRN
MO...ERN/SRN KS...FAR NRN OK
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 142315Z - 150145Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT
SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN THE SVR
TSTM POTENTIAL...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION...ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF ERN KS WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAKLY CONFLUENT...LOW-LEVEL
WSWLY/SWLY FLOW THAT MARKS THE ERN EDGE OF WARMER AIR SLOWLY
ADVANCING EWD. THE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION IS MODERATELY TO
STRONGLY UNSTABLE...AIDED BY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST
DEWPOINTS FROM THE 60S TO AROUND 70F. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...FOLLOWING MAXIMIZED DEEPENING OF BOUNDARY-LAYER
CIRCULATIONS.
IF SUSTAINED CONVECTION WERE TO DEVELOP...ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SVR WIND/HAIL COULD OCCUR PROVIDED AROUND 30-40 KT OF
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. THIS MAY BE OF PARTICULAR CONCERN NEAR/NORTH
OF INTERSTATE-70...WHERE THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND RELATED MODEST MID-LEVEL COOLING MAY ENCOURAGE TSTM
DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST ABUNDANT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR
OVERSPREADING PARTICULARLY SRN PARTS OF THE REGION...WHICH COULD
INDICATE HOSTILE MID-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS FOR SUSTAINED
TSTM DEVELOPMENT AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL ASCENT. NEVERTHELESS...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR SOME INCREASE IN
THE SVR RISK. IF A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT
WERE TO BECOME APPARENT...WW ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA.
..COHEN/CORFIDI.. 06/14/2016
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...DMX...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 37369737 39329652 40279574 40799480 40359371 37289538
36689687 37369737
from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1PsGyn8
Be First to Comment