SPC MD 937

MD 0937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO NRN OK

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0937
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO NRN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 152000Z - 152200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN KS INTO N CENTRAL OK.  WW NOT
CURRENTLY EXPECTED WITH RISK LIKELY TO REMAIN LOCALIZED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS AN INCREASE IN AN
AREA CENTERED OVER CENTRAL/S CENTRAL KS...INVOF A SUBTLE CONFLUENCE
AXIS/WARM FRONTAL-TYPE BOUNDARY.  THIS BOUNDARY SEPARATES A MUCH
DRIER /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ AIRMASS ACROSS NERN KS FROM
A MORE MOIST AIRMASS TO THE S AND SW...WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE /SAMPLED
MOST RECENTLY BY LAMONT OK 17Z RAOB/...THE HEATING OF THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER IS YIELDING AN EXTREMELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH
MIXED-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG.  

AS A VERY SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE TX/OK PANHANDLE
PER WV LOOP CONTINUES NEWD TOWARD THE DISCUSSION AREA...ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED. 
THOUGH FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS GENERALLY WEAK...VEERING
WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND THE DEGREE OF CAPE SUGGEST ISOLATED RISK FOR
HAIL/WIND DAMAGE WITH ONE OR TWO OF THE STRONGER STORMS.  WHILE WW
IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF THE
INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT...ANY UPSCALE GROWTH /AS HINTED AT BY A
FEW CAM RUNS/ COULD WARRANT WW CONSIDERATION ACROSS PARTS OF KS AND
ADJACENT NRN OK.

..GOSS/GUYER.. 06/15/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...

LAT...LON   39469825 39309720 38309604 37619508 37049516 36559606
            36159718 36129845 37189946 38119931 38769935 39349931
            39469825 

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from SPC Mesoscale Discussions http://1.usa.gov/1rqz5ie