SPC MD 956

MD 0956 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

Mesoscale Discussion 0956
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 PM CDT Sat Jun 30 2018

Areas affected...Central and Northern Oklahoma into Southeast
Kansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

Valid 302015Z - 302145Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

SUMMARY...Severe storms in southwest Oklahoma are expected to
continue northeast through the afternoon with primarily a damaging
wind threat.

DISCUSSION...The cluster of storms in southwest Oklahoma has a
history of producing 60 to 70 mph winds so far along its path.
Considering the thermodynamic environment ahead of this cluster
(3500+ J/kg MLCAPE) this cluster will likely continue to grow
upscale as it moves northeast. While 0 to 6 shear is relatively weak
(25 knots on the 18Z LMN sounding), it has proven sufficient for
multicell organization of ongoing convection. Given the large
buoyancy, large hail will continue to be a threat, however, damaging
winds will be the primary threat from these storms.

..Bentley/Hart.. 06/30/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

LAT...LON   35589903 36249859 37049812 37789755 38249723 38749659
            38859578 38789504 38449475 37809474 37139474 36839516
            35999606 35359683 34479785 34639827 35589903 

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